A novel prediction tool for mortality in patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding requiring emergency hospitalization: a large multicenter study.

The study aimed to identify prognostic factors for patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding and to develop a high-accuracy prediction tool. The analysis included 8254 cases of acute hematochezia patients who were admitted urgently based on the judgment of emergency physicians or gastroenterology consultants (from the CODE BLUE J-study). Patients were randomly assigned to a derivation cohort and a validation cohort in a 2:1 ratio using a random number table. Assuming that factors present at the time of admission are involved in mortality within 30 days of admission, and adding management factors during hospitalization to the factors at the time of admission for mortality within 1 year, prognostic factors were established. Multivariate analysis was conducted, and scores were assigned to each factor using regression coefficients, summing these to measure the score. The newly created score (CACHEXIA score) became a tool capable of measuring both mortality within 30 days (ROC-AUC 0.93) and within 1 year (C-index, 0.88). The 1-year mortality rates for patients classified as low, medium, and high risk by the CACHEXIA score were 1.0%, 13.4%, and 54.3% respectively (all P < 0.001). After discharge, patients identified as high risk using our unique predictive score require ongoing observation.

Characteristics, outcomes, and risk factors of surgery for acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding: nationwide cohort study of 10,342 hematochezia cases.

BACKGROUND: Current evidence on the surgical rate, indication, procedure, risk factors, mortality, and postoperative rebleeding for acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (ALGIB) is limited. METHODS: We constructed a retrospective cohort of 10,342 patients admitted for acute hematochezia at 49 hospitals (CODE BLUE J-Study) and evaluated clinical data on the surgeries performed. RESULTS: Surgery was performed in 1.3% (136/10342) of the cohort with high rates of colonoscopy (87.7%) and endoscopic hemostasis (26.7%). Indications for surgery included colonic diverticular bleeding (24%), colorectal cancer (22%), and small bowel bleeding (16%). Sixty-four percent of surgeries were for hemostasis for severe refractory bleeding. Postoperative rebleeding rates were 22% in patients with presumptive or obscure preoperative identification of the bleeding source and 12% in those with definitive identification. Thirty-day mortality rates were 1.5% and 0.8% in patients with and without surgery, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that surgery-related risk factors were transfusion need ≥ 6 units (P < 0.001), in-hospital rebleeding (P < 0.001), small bowel bleeding (P < 0.001), colorectal cancer (P < 0.001), and hemorrhoids (P < 0.001). Endoscopic hemostasis was negatively associated with surgery (P = 0.003). For small bowel bleeding, the surgery rate was significantly lower in patients with endoscopic hemostasis as 2% compared to 12% without endoscopic hemostasis. CONCLUSIONS: Our cohort study elucidated the outcomes and risks of the surgery. Extensive exploration including the small bowel to identify the source of bleeding and endoscopic hemostasis may reduce unnecessary surgery and improve the management of ALGIB.

Weekend Effect on Clinical Outcomes of Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Large Multicenter Cohort Study in Japan.

INTRODUCTION: Weekend admissions showed increased mortality in several medical conditions. This study aimed to examine the weekend effect on acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (ALGIB) and its mortality and other outcomes. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study (CODE BLUE-J Study) was conducted at 49 Japanese hospitals between January 2010 and December 2019. In total, 8,120 outpatients with acute hematochezia were enrolled and divided into weekend admissions and weekday admissions groups. Multiple imputation (MI) was used to handle missing values, followed by propensity score matching (PSM) to compare outcomes. The primary outcome was mortality; the secondary outcomes were rebleeding, length of stay (LOS), blood transfusion, thromboembolism, endoscopic treatment, the need for interventional radiology, and the need for surgery. Colonoscopy and computed tomography (CT) management were also evaluated. RESULTS: Before PSM, there was no significant difference in mortality (1.3% vs. 0.9%, p = 0.133) between weekend and weekday admissions. After PSM with MI, 1,976 cases were matched for each admission. Mortality was not significantly different for weekend admissions compared with weekday admissions (odds ratio [OR] 1.437, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.785-2.630; p = 0.340). No significant difference was found with other secondary outcomes in weekend admissions except for blood transfusion (OR 1.239, 95% CI 1.084-1.417; p = 0.006). Weekend admission had a negative effect on early colonoscopy (OR 0.536, 95% CI 0.471-0.609; p < 0.001). Meanwhile, urgent CT remained significantly higher in weekend admissions (OR 1.466, 95% CI 1.295-1.660; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Weekend admissions decrease early colonoscopy and increase urgent CT but do not affect mortality or other outcomes except transfusion.

LONG-HOSP Score: A Novel Predictive Score for Length of Hospital Stay in Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding - A Multicenter Nationwide Study.

INTRODUCTION: Length of stay (LOS) in hospital affects cost, patient quality of life, and hospital management; however, existing gastrointestinal bleeding models applicable at hospital admission have not focused on LOS. We aimed to construct a predictive model for LOS in acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (ALGIB). METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the records of 8,547 patients emergently hospitalized for ALGIB at 49 hospitals (the CODE BLUE-J Study). A predictive model for prolonged hospital stay was developed using the baseline characteristics of 7,107 patients and externally validated in 1,440 patients. Furthermore, a multivariate analysis assessed the impact of additional variables during hospitalization on LOS. RESULTS: Focusing on baseline characteristics, a predictive model for prolonged hospital stay was developed, the LONG-HOSP score, which consisted of low body mass index, laboratory data, old age, nondrinker status, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, facility with ≥800 beds, heart rate, oral antithrombotic agent use, symptoms, systolic blood pressure, performance status, and past medical history. The score showed relatively high performance in predicting prolonged hospital stay and high hospitalization costs (area under the curve: 0.70 and 0.73 for derivation, respectively, and 0.66 and 0.71 for external validation, respectively). Next, we focused on in-hospital management. Diagnosis of colitis or colorectal cancer, rebleeding, and the need for blood transfusion, interventional radiology, and surgery prolonged LOS, regardless of the LONG-HOSP score. By contrast, early colonoscopy and endoscopic treatment shortened LOS. CONCLUSIONS: At hospital admission for ALGIB, our novel predictive model stratified patients by their risk of prolonged hospital stay. During hospitalization, early colonoscopy and endoscopic treatment shortened LOS.

Outcomes and recurrent bleeding risks of detachable snare and band ligation for colonic diverticular bleeding: a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Ligation therapy, including endoscopic detachable snare ligation (EDSL) and endoscopic band ligation (EBL), has emerged as an endoscopic treatment for colonic diverticular bleeding (CDB); its comparative effectiveness and risk of recurrent bleeding remain unclear, however. Our goal was to compare the outcomes of EDSL and EBL in treating CDB and identify risk factors for recurrent bleeding after ligation therapy. METHODS: We reviewed data of 518 patients with CDB who underwent EDSL (n = 77) or EBL (n = 441) in a multicenter cohort study named the Colonic Diverticular Bleeding Leaders Update Evidence From Multicenter Japanese Study (CODE BLUE-J Study). Outcomes were compared by using propensity score matching. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were performed for recurrent bleeding risk, and a competing risk analysis was used to treat death without recurrent bleeding as a competing risk. RESULTS: No significant differences were found between the 2 groups in terms of initial hemostasis, 30-day recurrent bleeding, interventional radiology or surgery requirements, 30-day mortality, blood transfusion volume, length of hospital stay, and adverse events. Sigmoid colon involvement was an independent risk factor for 30-day recurrent bleeding (odds ratio, 1.87; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-3.40; P = .042). History of acute lower GI bleeding (ALGIB) was a significant long-term recurrent bleeding risk factor on Cox regression analysis. A performance status score of 3/4 and history of ALGIB were long-term recurrent bleeding factors on competing risk regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: There were no significant differences in outcomes between EDSL and EBL for CDB. After ligation therapy, careful follow-up is required, especially in the treatment of sigmoid diverticular bleeding during admission. History of ALGIB and performance status at admission are important risk factors for long-term recurrent bleeding after discharge.

Timing of colonoscopy in acute lower GI bleeding: a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to determine the optimal timing of colonoscopy and factors that benefit patients who undergo early colonoscopy for acute lower GI bleeding. METHODS: We identified 10,342 patients with acute hematochezia (CODE BLUE-J study) admitted to 49 hospitals in Japan. Of these, 6270 patients who underwent a colonoscopy within 120 hours were included in this study. The inverse probability of treatment weighting method was used to adjust for baseline characteristics among early (≤24 hours, n = 4133), elective (24-48 hours, n = 1137), and late (48-120 hours, n = 1000) colonoscopy. The average treatment effect was evaluated for outcomes. The primary outcome was 30-day rebleeding rate. RESULTS: The early group had a significantly higher rate of stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH) identification and a shorter length of stay than the elective and late groups. However, the 30-day rebleeding rate was significantly higher in the early group than in the elective and late groups. Interventional radiology (IVR) or surgery requirement and 30-day mortality did not significantly differ among groups. The interaction with heterogeneity of effects was observed between early and late colonoscopy and shock index (shock index <1, odds ratio [OR], 2.097; shock index ≥1, OR, 1.095; P for interaction = .038) and performance status (0-2, OR, 2.481; ≥3, OR, .458; P for interaction = .022) for 30-day rebleeding. Early colonoscopy had a significantly lower IVR or surgery requirement in the shock index ≥1 cohort (OR, .267; 95% confidence interval, .099-.721) compared with late colonoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: Early colonoscopy increased the rate of SRH identification and shortened the length of stay but involved an increased risk of rebleeding and did not improve mortality and IVR or surgery requirement. Early colonoscopy particularly benefited patients with a shock index ≥1 or performance status ≥3 at presentation.

Nationwide cohort study identifies clinical outcomes of angioectasia in patients with acute hematochezia.

BACKGROUND: While angioectasia is an important cause of acute hematochezia, relevant clinical features remain unclear. This study aims to reveal risk factors, clinical outcomes, and the effectiveness of therapeutic endoscopy for patients with acute hematochezia due to angioectasia. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted at 49 Japanese hospitals between January 2010 and December 2019, enrolling patients hospitalized for acute hematochezia (CODE BLUE-J study). Baseline factors and clinical outcomes for angioectasia were analyzed. RESULTS: Among 10,342 patients with acute hematochezia, 129 patients (1.2%) were diagnosed with angioectasia by colonoscopy. The following factors were significantly associated with angioectasia: chronic kidney disease, liver disease, female, body mass index < 25, and anticoagulant use. Patients with angioectasia were at a significant increased risk of blood transfusions compared to those without angioectasia (odds ratio [OR] 2.61; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.69-4.02). Among patients with angioectasia, 36 patients (28%) experienced rebleeding during 1-year follow-up. The 1-year cumulative rebleeding rates were 37.0% in the endoscopic clipping group, 14.3% in the coagulation group, and 32.8% in the conservative management group. Compared to conservative management, coagulation therapy significantly reduced rebleeding risk (P = 0.038), while clipping did not (P = 0.81). Multivariate analysis showed coagulation therapy was an independent factor for reducing rebleeding risk (hazard ratio [HR] 0.40; 95% CI 0.16-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Our data showed patients with angioectasia had a greater comorbidity burden and needed more blood transfusions in comparison with those without angioectasia. To reduce rebleeding risk, coagulation therapy can be superior for controlling hematochezia secondary to angioectasia.

Population-level Metagenomics Uncovers Distinct Effects of Multiple Medications on the Human Gut Microbiome.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Medication is a major determinant of human gut microbiome structure, and its overuse increases the risks of morbidity and mortality. However, effects of certain commonly prescribed drugs and multiple medications on the gut microbiome are still underinvestigated. METHODS: We performed shotgun metagenomic analysis of fecal samples from 4198 individuals in the Japanese 4D (Disease, Drug, Diet, Daily life) microbiome project. A total of 759 drugs were profiled, and other metadata, such as anthropometrics, lifestyles, diets, physical activities, and diseases, were prospectively collected. Second fecal samples were collected from 243 individuals to assess the effects of drug initiation and discontinuation on the microbiome. RESULTS: We found that numerous drugs across different treatment categories influence the microbiome; more than 70% of the drugs we profiled had not been examined before. Individuals exposed to multiple drugs, polypharmacy, showed distinct gut microbiome structures harboring significantly more abundant upper gastrointestinal species and several nosocomial pathobionts due to additive drug effects. Polypharmacy was also associated with microbial functions, including the reduction of short-chain fatty acid metabolism and increased bacterial stress responses. Even nonantibiotic drugs were significantly correlated with an increased antimicrobial resistance potential through polypharmacy. Notably, a 2-time points dataset revealed the alteration and recovery of the microbiome in response to drug initiation and cessation, corroborating the observed drug-microbe associations in the cross-sectional cohort. CONCLUSION: Our large-scale metagenomics unravels extensive and disruptive impacts of individual and multiple drug exposures on the human gut microbiome, providing a drug-microbe catalog as a basis for a deeper understanding of the role of the microbiome in drug efficacy and toxicity.

Metagenomic Identification of Microbial Signatures Predicting Pancreatic Cancer From a Multinational Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: To identify gut and oral metagenomic signatures that accurately predict pancreatic ductal carcinoma (PDAC) and to validate these signatures in independent cohorts. METHODS: We conducted a multinational study and performed shotgun metagenomic analysis of fecal and salivary samples collected from patients with treatment-naïve PDAC and non-PDAC controls in Japan, Spain, and Germany. Taxonomic and functional profiles of the microbiomes were characterized, and metagenomic classifiers to predict PDAC were constructed and validated in external datasets. RESULTS: Comparative metagenomics revealed dysbiosis of both the gut and oral microbiomes and identified 30 gut and 18 oral species significantly associated with PDAC in the Japanese cohort. These microbial signatures achieved high area under the curve values of 0.78 to 0.82. The prediction model trained on the Japanese gut microbiome also had high predictive ability in Spanish and German cohorts, with respective area under the curve values of 0.74 and 0.83, validating its high confidence and versatility for PDAC prediction. Significant enrichments of Streptococcus and Veillonella spp and a depletion of Faecalibacterium prausnitzii were common gut signatures for PDAC in all the 3 cohorts. Prospective follow-up data revealed that patients with certain gut and oral microbial species were at higher risk of PDAC-related mortality. Finally, 58 bacteriophages that could infect microbial species consistently enriched in patients with PDAC across the 3 countries were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Metagenomics targeting the gut and oral microbiomes can provide a powerful source of biomarkers for identifying individuals with PDAC and their prognoses. The identification of shared gut microbial signatures for PDAC in Asian and European cohorts indicates the presence of robust and global gut microbial biomarkers.

Endoscopic direct clipping versus indirect clipping for colonic diverticular bleeding: A large multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Direct and indirect clipping treatments are used worldwide to treat colonic diverticular bleeding (CDB), but their effectiveness has not been examined in multicenter studies with more than 100 cases. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine the short- and long-term effectiveness of direct versus indirect clipping for CDB in a nationwide cohort. METHODS: We studied 1041 patients with CDB who underwent direct clipping (n = 360) or indirect clipping (n = 681) at 49 hospitals across Japan (CODE BLUE-J Study). RESULTS: Multivariate analysis adjusted for age, sex, and important confounding factors revealed that, compared with indirect clipping, direct clipping was independently associated with reduced risk of early rebleeding (<30 days; adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.592, p = 0.002), late rebleeding (<1 year; AOR 0.707, p = 0.018), and blood transfusion requirement (AOR 0.741, p = 0.047). No significant difference in initial hemostasis rates was observed between the two groups. Propensity-score matching to balance baseline characteristics also showed significant reductions in the early and late rebleeding rates with direct clipping. In subgroup analysis, direct clipping was associated with significantly lower rates of early and late rebleeding and blood transfusion need in cases of stigmata of recent hemorrhage with non-active bleeding on colonoscopy, right-sided diverticula, and early colonoscopy, but not with active bleeding on colonoscopy, left-sided diverticula, or elective colonoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: Our large nationwide study highlights the use of direct clipping for CDB treatment whenever possible. Differences in bleeding pattern and colonic location can also be considered when deciding which clipping options to use.

Treatment strategies for reducing early and late recurrence of colonic diverticular bleeding based on stigmata of recent hemorrhage: a large multicenter study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Treatment strategies for colonic diverticular bleeding (CDB) based on stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH) remain unstandardized, and no large studies have evaluated their effectiveness. We sought to identify the best strategy among combinations of SRH identification and endoscopic treatment strategies. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 5823 CDB patients who underwent colonoscopy at 49 hospitals throughout Japan (CODE-BLUE J-Study). Three strategies were compared: find SRH (definitive CDB) and treat endoscopically, find SRH (definitive CDB) and treat conservatively, and without finding SRH (presumptive CDB) treat conservatively. In conducting pairwise comparisons of outcomes in these groups, we used propensity score-matching analysis to balance baseline characteristics between the groups being compared. RESULTS: Both early and late recurrent bleeding rates were significantly lower in patients with definitive CDB treated endoscopically than in those with presumptive CDB treated conservatively (<30 days, 19.6% vs 26.0% [P < .001]; <365 days, 33.7% vs 41.6% [P < .001], respectively). In patients with definitive CDB, the early recurrent bleeding rate was significantly lower in those treated endoscopically than in those treated conservatively (17.4% vs 26.7% [P = .038] for a single test of hypothesis; however, correction for multiple testing of data removed this significance). The late recurrent bleeding rate was also lower, but not significantly, in those treated endoscopically (32.0% vs 36.1%, P = .426). Definitive CDB treated endoscopically showed significantly lower early and late recurrent bleeding rates than when treated conservatively in cases of SRH with active bleeding, nonactive bleeding, and in the right-sided colon but not left-sided colon. CONCLUSIONS: Treating definitive CDB endoscopically was most effective in reducing recurrent bleeding over the short and long term, compared with not treating definitive CDB or presumptive CDB. Physicians should endeavor to find and treat SRH for suspected CDB.

Outcomes in high and low volume hospitals in patients with acute hematochezia in a cohort study.

Outcomes of acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding have not been compared according to hospital capacity. We aimed to perform a propensity score-matched cohort study with path and mediation analyses for acute hematochezia patients. Hospitals were divided into high- versus low-volume hospitals for emergency medical services. Rebleeding and death within 30 days were compared. Computed tomography, early colonoscopy (colonoscopy performed within 24 h), and endoscopic therapies were included as mediators. A total of 2644 matched pairs were yielded. The rebleeding rate within 30 days was not significant between high- and low-volume hospitals (16% vs. 17%, P = 0.44). The mortality rate within 30 days was significantly higher in the high-volume cohort than in the low-volume cohort (1.7% vs. 0.8%, P = 0.003). Treatment at high-volume hospitals was not a significant factor for rebleeding (odds ratio [OR] = 0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79-1.06; P = 0.23), but was significant for death within 30 days (OR = 2.03; 95% CI, 1.17-3.52; P = 0.012) on multivariate logistic regression after adjusting for patients' characteristics. Mediation effects were not observed, except for rebleeding within 30 days in high-volume hospitals through early colonoscopy. However, the direct effect of high-volume hospitals on rebleeding was not significant. High-volume hospitals did not improve the outcomes of acute hematochezia patients.

Identifying Bleeding Etiologies by Endoscopy Affected Outcomes in 10,342 Cases With Hematochezia: CODE BLUE-J Study.

INTRODUCTION: The bleeding source of hematochezia is unknown without performing colonoscopy. We sought to identify whether colonoscopy is a risk-stratifying tool to identify etiology and predict outcomes and whether presenting symptoms can differentiate the etiologies in patients with hematochezia. METHODS: This multicenter retrospective cohort study conducted at 49 hospitals across Japan analyzed 10,342 patients admitted for outpatient-onset acute hematochezia. RESULTS: Patients were mostly elderly population, and 29.5% had hemodynamic instability. Computed tomography was performed in 69.1% and colonoscopy in 87.7%. Diagnostic yield of colonoscopy reached 94.9%, most frequently diverticular bleeding. Thirty-day rebleeding rates were significantly higher with diverticulosis and small bowel bleeding than with other etiologies. In-hospital mortality was significantly higher with angioectasia, malignancy, rectal ulcer, and upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Colonoscopic treatment rates were significantly higher with diverticulosis, radiation colitis, angioectasia, rectal ulcer, and postendoscopy bleeding. More interventional radiology procedures were needed for diverticulosis and small bowel bleeding. Etiologies with favorable outcomes and low procedure rates were ischemic colitis and infectious colitis. Higher rates of painless hematochezia at presentation were significantly associated with multiple diseases, such as rectal ulcer, hemorrhoids, angioectasia, radiation colitis, and diverticulosis. The same was true in cases of hematochezia with diarrhea, fever, and hemodynamic instability. DISCUSSION: This nationwide data set of acute hematochezia highlights the importance of colonoscopy in accurately detecting bleeding etiologies that stratify patients at high or low risk of adverse outcomes and those who will likely require more procedures. Predicting different bleeding etiologies based on initial presentation would be challenging.